A climate change vulnerability assessment conducted in Semarang indicated several significant effects of climate change in the region: Over the next 100 years, the mean temperature may rise by up to 1 degree Celsius. Precipitation is likely to increase during the wet season and decrease during the dry season. Droughts will occur if the average rainfall levels fall below 84 mm per month and in contrast, flooding will occur if rainfalls exceed 302 mm. Sea levels are predicted to rise up to 21 cm by 2050 and up to 48-60 cm by 2100. Consequences include an increased risk of flooding, storms, high waves, landslides, lack of clean water, and vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever.
In this light, the long-term development plan (RPJP) for Semarang for 2005-2025 formulates five objectives, namely: (1) an improved human resource quality (meningkatnya kualitas sumberdaya manusia), (2) democratic and responsive governance and political life, (3) self-reliance and competitiveness of the region, (4) sustainable spatial planning (tata ruang) and infrastructure, and (5) improvement of societal welfare. Fulfilling these development targets is complicated by the effects of climate change.
Moreover, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Semarang are estimated to increase to 3,068,567 tCO2e in 2020. The largest contributor of emissions is the transport sector (62%), followed by the waste (18%), residential (10%), industry (9%) and commercial (2%) sectors. Emissions from government operations (such as energy use in government buildings) are expected to increase to 181,885 tCO2e in 2020.
In order to face these challenges, Semarang city is committed to reduce both climate risks and GHG emissions. The city’s emission reduction target is set at 4% of the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. To this end, the city has formulated seven climate strategies: To increase energy efficiency, develop an integrated waste management system, control vector-borne diseases, improve the water supply and service, improve climate-related disaster preparedness, control the impact of floods and sea-level rise, as well as regulate construction planning and land use change.